CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2020-05-26T00:39:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2020-05-26T00:39ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/15535/-1
CME Note: Speculative source location is a brightening at the edge of the northern extension of the southern polar coronal hole. A faint ripple is visible in the western streamer in C2/C3 but this was not used for measuring. Shock arrival time description from Teresa Nieves-Chinchilla: I think it is a flux rope followed by a high speed stream. I can see a magnetic field red-component rotation with polarity south-to-north. The blue y-component is mostly south. The solar wind speed within the structure is increasing, a signature of compression and also consistent with the changes in the red z-magnetic field component at the front of the structure. The structure is followed by an increase in magnetic field, proton temperature and solar wind speed.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2020-05-29T22:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2020-05-30T08:05Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 10.0%
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
% Compiled module: EAM_V2. ****************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 266.0 km/s u_r = 314.7 km/s Acceleration: 0.472655 Duration in seconds: 372394.37 Duration in days: 4.3101200 t2 is negative ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: 0.47 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 490.7 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 30/05/2020 Time: 08:05 UTLead Time: 37.50 hour(s)
Difference: -10.08 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) on 2020-05-28T08:30Z
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